Global Anti-counterfeiting Printing Market Continues To Grow, But Business in This Segment Is Declining ......

The global market for security printing is struggling to stay one step ahead of counterfeiters, especially in products such as banknotes and personal identification documents. As a result companies, brand owners and government organizations are actively seeking non-contact solutions, and these efforts, coupled with Covid-19, have triggered unprecedented changes that are accelerating the digitization of certain types of secure documents. A Smithers report, "The Future of Global Security Printing to 2026," details these trends and other market drivers.

The global anti-counterfeit printing market is estimated to be worth $29.89 billion in 2021, according to this new global study. Since 2016, the market has grown in value at a CAGR of 2.4%, although this figure is slightly distorted by a decline of nearly 4% in 2020, when measures taken by Covid-19 and world authorities to curb the spread of the virus caused severe disruptions to global trade and economic activity and halted a period of sustained growth. The global market is expected to expand further through 2026, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 3.2% to a value of more than $35 billion.

Covid-19

  As the Covid-19 pandemic spreads globally, the adoption of new contactless technologies is forcing a market disruption that will last until 2026. According to a new Smithers report, the technology transformation involves changing payment methods, greater use of digital platforms, advances in global ID for all, applied identification of biometrics, greater supply chain traceability and digital ticketing.

  All areas of security printing technology, including DOVID (with holograms), substrates, security inks, labels, watermarks, lines, biometrics, RFID and coding systems, and printing processes, have experienced growth in market value over the past five years due to the growth in counterfeiting and criminal activity, as well as technological advances that bring new solutions to the market, among other factors.

Substrates

  In terms of value, the substrates industry is the largest in the market, valued at over USD 8.16 billion in 2021. The industry has grown at an average annual rate of 2.5% since 2016, with much of this growth attributed to the emergence of new substrates such as polycarbonate, which are gaining greater popularity in the printing of banknotes around the world. The industry is still relatively mature, however, and is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.3% over the period through 2026. The digitization of many types of secure documents will also hinder its growth during this period, with ticketing applications being a notable example.

The substrate industry accounts for 27.3% of the total market value by 2021, and this figure is expected to decline slightly to just over 26% by 2026. Together with printing processes, the two largest segments account for nearly half of the total market share in 2021, a figure that rises to more than 69% when RFID and coding systems are included.

End Markets

  The primary end-use applications for security printing are in the banknote and personal ID segments. in 2021, the banknote industry will generate sales of more than $11.91 billion, surpassing personal ID ($8.93 billion) as the highest of the two industries. Between 2016 and 2021, the paper money industry grew at an average annual rate of nearly 5%, but this is somewhat distorted by an appreciation of more than 6% in 2020. While the Covid-19 epidemic has led to a significant reduction in the use of cash for physical transactions in many parts of the world, demand for banknotes has been boosted significantly by consumers hoarding cash due to the uncertain economic environment. This has led to a sharp rise in the number of banknotes printed in regions such as Western Europe and North America. growth in the sector is expected to be even lower between 2021 and 2026 as banknotes face greater pressure from electronic and digital payments. Nonetheless, many in the printing and financial services industries believe that predictions of cash's demise are overstated, as it remains the only payment option for a large portion of the global population.

  A Slipping Industry

  The shift from physical to digital documents continues to adversely affect demand for security printing in industries such as cheques and tickets. The check industry continues to lose ground to newer and more advanced payment methods, and is expected to decline further by more than 5% per year between 2021 and 2026. The ticketing industry is also expected to decline during this period, growing at a CAGR of 3.4%.

  With much of the global travel and entertainment industry shutting down, ticketing is one of the biggest losers from the impact of the epidemic, with market value declining by more than 50% in 2020. However, even before Covid-19, more tour operators and entertainment venues had been switching from physical to digital tickets for reasons including making the consumer experience more convenient, as well as reducing printing costs and environmental impact. The epidemic has further increased the demand for contactless solutions, so physical tickets will continue to lose ground.